Transition implications from fossil fuel overcapacity: The cases of Spain, China and India

In this link you can find the paper 'Transition implications from fossil fuel overcapacity: The cases of Spain, China and India'.

Abstract:

The tight time availability to materialize a climate consistent transition aligned with the 1.5C global warming boundary condition requires a clear understanding of the dynamics at play, so that social and political efforts can be applied efficiently. Wrong energy planning, speculative investments and the lack of consistent transition approaches have led to fossil fuel overcapacity issues in many countries’ power systems, which often evolve towards transition barriers hindering or even reversing the transition progress. Herewith we present stranded assets and curtailment analyses for different countries. These analyses represent the two extreme outcomes from a fossil fuel overcapacity issue: Fossil fuels fail in deploying effective barriers for RES deployment and therefore become stranded, or they succeed and RES deployment is curtailed. The analyses herewith presented aim to add insight into the transition implications from fossil fuel overcapacity issues, so that they can be properly anticipated and addressed in those countries that already step into the fossil fuel overcapacity pathway, and provide advice to those countries that still have the chance to leapfrog the unstable and difficult fossil fuel overcapacity transition phase and directly base their transition on RES deployment without losing scarce time and resources to overcome additional transition barriers.