A transition analysis for a 1.5C Climate Vision

Along the second half of 2016 I did, for Greenpeace International, a transition analysis to explore the feasibility and implications of a transition to align our socio-economic systems with the 1.5C climate boundary condition adopted in the Paris Agreement (COP21 - December 2015).

Under this link you can find a paper documenting the main elements of this transition analysis and discussing its main conclusions and insights.


The good news:

• In spite of all the lack of effective transition action along the last decades, it is still feasible to articulate a transition that aligns our socio-economic systems with the climate boundary condition without resorting to 'false solutions', stabilising our climate at 1.5C and therefore avoiding higher impacts from climate change.
• In order to do so we need to articulate structural changes that, beyond its positive climate change impact, lead us towards sustainable pathways and provide the so much needed resilience to navigate the future ahead.

The bad news:

• The window of opportunity to articulate this transition will close very soon.
• We are nowhere close to undertaking, and even discussing, the required structural changes that could enable the transition.

The evolution from representative to participatory contexts in all the dimensions of our socio-economic systems (energy, economy, policy, financing, conservancy, ...) is the cornerstone enabling most of the required structural changes. Now we are getting ready the tools to articulate this evolution. Will our vision and courage stand at the appropriate level of ambition, or will we miss the window for action and assist from our underdeveloped representative contexts how climate change unfolds and our systems crumble down?