Abstract
The transition analysis presented in this paper
explores the feasibility and implications of articulating a transition aligned
with the 1.5C climate policy goal, within the boundaries of sustainability, and
that reinforces the resilience from the socio-economic systems. The results
from the analysis show that such a transition is still feasible, but in order
to achieve the required transition rates structural changes have to be
addressed. Peak renewable energy deployment rates more than one order of
magnitude higher than current values would be required. Integration of the
energy system through smart electrification is a must to unlock high transition
rates within the energy sector. Because of the delay on undertaking such a
transition, even these high transition rates within the energy sector are not
enough to provide climate alignment, and
ambitious transitions in forestry, agriculture and industry (process and
fluorinated gasses) are needed to achieve the global climate goal. Innovative
policies are required in all the fronts (energy, economy, financing, social accountability,
…) to facilitate and enable the structural changes that have the key for the
required high transition rates, with the transition from representative
contexts to participative contexts being one of the key areas where policy
action needs to focus.
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